Ukrainian verison here

Despite all the chaos, we often have the power to shape our future. Sometimes we do it radically. And first and foremost, this begins with recognizing possible realities, accepting risks, and not hiding from potential challenges or hardships. It means resisting the urge to explain everything through the familiar categories of the past — the very ones that led us into crisis.

This text is not intended to frighten or provoke panic. On the contrary, its purpose is to help prevent most of the scenarios it describes.

I will go on to outline the basic components of readiness for a possible war, as well as the basic logic behind such a scenario. I will also share some practical personal experience. But first, I want to address your likely objection. Yes, you probably have plenty of arguments why Russia would never dare attack you. But many of those arguments have already become irrelevant — and you may not have even noticed. The world has changed dramatically. Russia has reasons to attack Europe. It has developed multiple operational scenarios for such an assault. And, most importantly, it has reasons to believe in its success — based on your vulnerabilities. Your first reaction now might be skepticism. Likely even irony or sarcasm. Don"t rush it. Ukrainians, too, had a long list of rational arguments why Russia wouldn"t attack Ukraine in 2014 — and again in 2022. But Russia did attack. And we were not fully prepared. I want to help protect you from repeating our mistakes. It"s true that one can"t be fully prepared without direct experience. But one can at least acknowledge the possibility, overcome denial, and realize: you are at the beginning of a path. And that is already a powerful start.

Don"t judge Russians by your own standards, and don"t rely on their opposition in exile. The latter are simply another layer of attack already working toward a common goal — some knowingly, others not. You don"t understand them. Don"t indulge in dangerous illusions about a "good Russian people" who simply lack democracy. It"s far more complicated than that. You"re unlikely to reach any sort of agreement with them. You have nothing to offer them except your freedom, your rights, and your prosperity — all of which they want to take from you. Don"t fall for the illusion of soft power coming from Russia Today and similar projects. The dictator Putin merely gave Russians what they wanted. It"s not Putin who puts on virtual-reality goggles to steer a kamikaze drone into a car full of Ukrainian civilians. That happens here every day. This is a verified reality. And it is done by ordinary Russians. Because a key component of Russia"s sociocultural discourse is a low value placed on life — including the conscious devaluation of their own lives. Add to that the entire spectrum of intolerance: religious, national, gender-based. Russian society is built on the rejection of everything you consider fundamental values — with the silent consent and tacit support of the state. To see this for yourself, take a closer look at their everyday folklore and online space. This is why people from this society are so easily ready : to kill, and to die.

Xenophobia and intolerance can be found in any society. But in Russian society, they are an unspoken norm. The reasons, if you look closely, are quite simple. Nearly the entire history of Russia is a story of external conquest and internal crisis. In the course of these wars of aggression and repeated upheavals, the best members of society were either physically eliminated or forced into exile. Material resources and — more importantly — accumulated experience were periodically lost in their entirety. The country and its people had to start over, again and again. These new beginnings were often irrational and sacrificial. And that is acceptable for an empire — an empire that depends on "cheap" human lives to sustain its wars and state ambitions. This deeply rooted perception — that one"s own life holds little value — is once again the driving force behind this current war. Russian soldiers" willingness to die without question makes Russia"s army mortally dangerous for European societies and militaries, where the value of human life and individual rights stands above all else. To Russians, these values are seen as a sign of weakness — and for many years, a source of ridicule.

Of course, xenophobic attitudes alone are not enough to launch a successful military invasion. That"s why it"s crucial to understand another reality: Russia is preparing — and has been for a long time. The more it denies this, the more likely it is to be true. It is dangerously naive to believe that the Kremlin started its campaign against Ukraine simply to seize four regions or install puppet leaders in Kyiv. Today, Ukraine plays the role that Finland or Manchuria played for the Soviet Union in 1939: a relatively limited conflict that precedes a larger one, used to significantly boost military readiness. Because stopping after just one "victory" is impossible when your officially declared enemy is NATO and the United States. And Ukraine, in their view, is part of Russia — a region that, as they claim, the West manipulated into becoming a separate state in order to weaken Russia. That was already their belief before 2022 — before Western weapons in Ukrainian hands inflicted devastating losses on Russian forces. That is why revenge is inevitable. But revenge is not the main driver here. A long and exhausting war on foreign soil is only sustainable when fueled by extreme levels of hatred. And as long as that aggressive energy is aimed outward, the rulers in Moscow retain power. Starting a war is far easier than ending one. Ending it would mean that all that cultivated bloodlust turns inward — and in that scenario, holding onto power becomes nearly impossible.

The heavy human and economic losses Russia is suffering demonstrate the limits of its potential. They are fully aware of this. They understand that the window of opportunity to attack Europe lasts only a few more years. And in these coming years, several factors will converge. First: the economy will decline, making it impossible to sustain a long war of attrition and forcing attention to internal problems. But this will also drastically reduce the cost of recruiting new soldiers due to poverty and unemployment. The West will be blamed for the economic downturn. Therefore, strikes against Europe, further crises in Europe, and the plundering of newly conquered territories will become ways to reboot the Russian economy and satisfy popular demands. Believe me, looting is a powerful motivator for them. Second: the prolonged war with Ukraine will push their weapons and tactics to a fundamentally new level. Not all European military experts realize that our battlefield radically changes every six months. Often these changes are revolutionary. Russia does not lag behind Ukraine in innovation. New tools and tactics are cheap and effective. Already, we are seeing strike drones costing $10,000–$20,000 with functionality close to modern cruise missiles worth millions. Together with super-cheap soldiers who obediently go to their deaths, this forms a deadly force. The size of the Russian army has grown over the past three years. In the near future, Russia will have a chance to increase its army size by 1.5 to 2 times — rapidly, but only once.

And third: right now, you are radically unprepared for this war. Right now. In a couple of years, most of you will no longer be laughing at my text. Your military budgets, army size, and weapons stockpiles will grow. Meanwhile, they will miss their moment. Their potential will shrink due to the war in Ukraine (which is unlikely to go away) and their internal problems. That"s why I speak of a window of opportunity lasting a few coming years. By the way, an attack on you would be a strategic blow to us as well. Because you are our strategic rear and the source of our support. Without you, it"s unlikely that we will withstand.

Let"s return to the present. Your radical unpreparedness not only provokes an attack but even invites it. Your armies, as external observers, are physically incapable of absorbing this entire stream of new experience — even assuming we openly share all data with you. So when you cannot assemble a contingent of even 50,000 troops who would simply be stationed in our rear and more effectively absorb our experience, this demonstrates the real incapacity of your armies. Do not think your expensive, high-tech weapons will protect you. Against this costly but numerically limited weaponry, Russia will deploy half a million or even a million disposable soldiers. Their tasks might include carrying a 50 kg load over 1,000 meters; riding a motorcycle 2 km to find a building to hide in; running to the nearest forest strip and digging a foxhole; or blocking FPV drones or mines with their bodies. They have been sent on assaults while wounded. Their commanders have honed this conveyor belt of death in dozens of scenarios. These are absolutely massive phenomena. This is a deliberate policy that increases the army"s effectiveness. Along with torture of civilians, it has escalated exponentially since 2022. Understand this and imagine the scale. All your high-cost, high-efficiency but low-numbers weaponry will be exhausted on these disposable soldiers. Then, seasoned pros with not the best, but battle-tested equipment and gear will move in and take as much as they can. Ukraine can hold them back thanks to two factors that you do not have. First: the ability to sustain considerably smaller, but still significant, human losses — losses unacceptable to you. Second: experience gained through co-evolution with the Russian army.

Next, I will try to develop another important thesis in detail: it is not just the army that fights. Everyone fights — each in their own way. The ability of the Ukrainian army to resist is explained by the unity of the entire society and its willingness to sacrifice lives. At the same time, people continue to work, live, and endure despite everything. Over these three years, despite all the exhaustion, Ukrainians have solidified this ability. Along with the understanding that without a certain willpower and a degree of heroism from civilians, the army will not hold. Because if the rear collapses, the front will collapse as well. Here we come to an important and, at the same time, paradoxical thought: it is crucial to continue living a peaceful life. Bars, libraries, schools, theaters, shops, and so on should keep operating if possible. We often hear accusations from you that we continue to live a peaceful life even though the war is ongoing. Yes, it"s true. And you must continue doing so when the war begins for you. Otherwise, you won"t hold out. Otherwise, you won"t find the strength to clear rubble after explosions or to restore production and logistics under extreme conditions. The key thing that you will have to realize is this: armies do not win wars. Societies, countries, and peoples win.

But that will come later. First, you will need to endure several shock periods when everything begins. It is truly difficult. However, understanding the possible scenarios of the onset will allow you to anticipate risks and prepare the necessary material resources.

How might it all begin?According to Soviet doctrine, a war with NATO envisaged the destruction of Germany"s logistics through missile strikes. This logic undoubtedly remains. Russia has ramped up production of tested and modernized missiles and drones to peak capability—and is stockpiling them rather than using them against us. But now their plans might take somewhat different forms. If a country is unprepared to resist, the real damage from missile strikes might prove unnecessary. In addition, highly effective electronic warfare, informational, and political tools can be used. Other hybrid methods, such as terrorism—both from Islamist groups and radical local factions—are possibilities. Moscow has invested billions into all these capabilities, which are simply waiting for their time. I am absolutely certain there are thousands of mission targets for cruise missiles like the X-101, Kalibr missiles, and kamikaze drones like the Shahed for strikes in Europe. These routes are planned to fly over densely populated areas. Russia could easily launch a couple of hundred X-101 missiles and five hundred Shahed drones in one night via Belarus and/or from the north through Finland. Of course, your air defenses and aviation might shoot down as many as 95% of enemy targets. But debris will fall because these missiles will fly over cities, villages, roads, factories, and farms. Someone"s car will burn, someone"s house will be hit. There will be traffic jams on the roads. People will be injured or killed even by debris from downed missiles. The most likely reaction will be a full spectrum of panic: queues in stores, demands to the government for control, calls to friends and colleagues in Russia, and appeals to morality and sympathy. We also did the same in February 2022. Now, we only smile bitterly...

By the way, shooting down 95% of targets is a very optimistic scenario. I"m convinced the Russians have saved something new for you. For example, controlling missiles and Shahed drones in real time using your own mobile networks, evading aviation and air defenses, which they will also be tracking. But even without this: shooting down Shaheds is not as easy as it seems—especially during massive attacks organized by highly experienced external operators. Therefore, 30-40% of the missiles might actually hit their targets: communication hubs, airports, train stations, bridges, power substations, defense ministries, military bases. Yes, they will take into account Ukrainian experience and could use strategic non-nuclear weapons immediately against civilian targets to intensify panic. And after a couple of days, Russia could easily repeat a massive strike, skillfully combining it with other means of influence. Will you be ready for this? Probably not. But you could still retain the ability to resist—if you at least have some idea of what awaits you. Because the Russians will rely primarily on fear and panic. This will be their main weapon. And I repeat: that is exactly why they will almost certainly strike civilians right away.

The phrase "Kyiv in three days" has a very simple basis. During the first three days, you will experience shock, and your behavior will largely be driven by the stress hormone cortisol. Physiological reactions to it can be quite unusual. Rational thinking during this period will be low, and this is exactly what our enemy counted on in February 2022. They will count on the same when they attack you. It is extremely important during this time not to give in to panic. Try not to make sudden or impulsive decisions. Stay close with your family and friends and support one another. Even if you find yourself in a combat zone, do not try to leave it immediately. Stop. The risk of death from friendly or enemy fire will be high. Traffic jams and road congestion make perfect targets—or obstacles to the movement of military equipment, whether yours or the enemy"s. Both are bad, and the latter is very dangerous. Russians are used to shooting civilian vehicles on roads. Try to stay in a protected place. Remember the "two walls" rule if you can"t find a specialized shelter. Be cautious with basement areas: before going down, make sure there are tools like a crowbar, pickaxe, shovel, etc. Have a small supply of food and water. Almost certainly, the shock will pass within three days or sooner, and you will understand the situation better and how to act rationally going forward.

Rely exclusively on official information. Do not trust rumors, especially messages on social media. Because there, almost certainly, you will encounter enemy propaganda. Yes, your government—made up of people just like you—will make mistakes and sometimes fall short. But consuming enemy propaganda means harming yourself and your fellow citizens. Also, be prepared for hacks and fake news. Artificial intelligence is now capable of generating very realistic video footage. So, if you suddenly see a video of your general, president, or prime minister calling for surrender—do not rush to believe it.

Next, you might think it will all be over in three weeks, because Russia, as always, will miscalculate somewhere, suffer losses, and the Americans will step into the war. But it may turn out that they won"t intervene the way we hope. And the overall situation will be much more complicated. Because simultaneously with Russia"s invasion of Europe, a series of local conflicts will begin: Taiwan-China, South Korea-North Korea, India-Pakistan (which has already started but has huge potential to escalate), Iran-Israel, Venezuela-Guyana, and so on. Your psyche will be pressured by losses and destruction. Threats of shelling and airstrikes. A shattered daily life, possible disruptions in food, water, and electricity supplies. Most likely, a grueling marathon will follow. Therefore, you should focus on maintaining the vital functions of your communities and societies. Shops and logistics must continue to operate, even if delivering food will require truck drivers to take risks. Appealing to employers, unions, contract terms, the government, or local authorities will be inappropriate. Taking leave or resigning with compensation would be immoral. In other words, you will have to partially give up some freedoms and the principle of life as the highest value. For civilians, a military principle will also be useful: "If in a unit, soldiers only care about their own lives, they will all perish. If every soldier is ready to die for another, none will die."

You will have to unite, and everyone will need to give more to the community than before. Emergency responders and fire services will sometimes be unable to handle all the challenges. Volunteers will be needed — organized volunteers equipped with tools, gear, and experience, who will be able to board up broken windows, dismantle damaged parts of buildings, and so on.

It is also important to mention military-related volunteerism. Beyond the fact that many able-bodied men and women will have to be mobilized or work in defense industries, you should be ready to find other ways to support the army. The Ukrainian experience in this regard is very valuable. Because your armies" ammunition and other material resources will run out very quickly. All possible civilian means will need to be mobilized to fight the enemy: thermal imagers, pickups, drones, engineering barriers, communications equipment, camouflage nets, boats, ATVs, trucks, construction materials, electrical equipment, generators, charging stations, and dozens, if not hundreds, more items. Your government will not be able to provide all of this fully, because your current defense budgets are insufficient. These necessary means will have to be purchased, including with funds raised through crowdfunding.

There is a separate conversation about the funds for weapons, which will have to be raised through charitable mechanisms. This may cause some discomfort or resistance on your part. It is necessary to understand that the most humane donation is a donation for weapons used for defense. At first glance, it may seem noble to raise money for treating wounded children. But if you analyze the situation more deeply, donations should go towards means of protection that prevent injuries in the first place.Collecting funds for dealing with the consequences instead of prevention is not just irrational—it is immoral. For example, a kamikaze anti-air drone purchased by volunteers destroys an enemy reconnaissance drone. As a result, an Iskander missile or FAB bomb never arrives because an important link in the targeting system is disabled. And then there is no need to raise money for prosthetics for children.

An essential component of your resilience must be a stable personal household setup in critical conditions.

And finally, individual preparedness of each of you is of great importance. First and foremost, psychological readiness, though this is the hardest part and requires experience. In terms of skills, focus on tactical medicine, working with tools, topography, survival skills, and communication. Ideally, learn to use small arms and drones. For the latter, there are plenty of tools and simulation programs available. This is an extremely important component, which you will later appreciate. It is very useful to familiarize yourself with the structure of the Russian army, the characteristics of their weapons, equipment, and tactics. Download relevant literature, watch videos. There is a wealth of information openly available, including up-to-date guidelines for small infantry unit tactics. You will also need simple, reliable, practical, and durable clothing and training footwear. An emergency "go-bag" should be packed and kept in an accessible place: all your documents (preferably waterproofed), cash, flashlights, first aid kit, power bank, some food and water, hygiene items, and clothing. Communication devices as well. But do not overburden the go-bag — you need to remain as mobile as possible. Ideally, it should be a backpack. Your car should always have a full tank, with a couple of reserve fuel cans ready.

Of course, an accurate forecast of the future has never been possible. This is because we make choices every day that change the future. And if you now accept the risks and begin comprehensive preparation to resist an invasion, the invasion will very likely not happen. Russia counts on your weakness. It expects that you will not prepare and that political forces under its influence will obstruct and continue to obstruct your efforts. It is important for you to consistently demonstrate awareness and readiness. There should be regular media reports about shooting courses, drone schools, volunteer rescue brigades, and so on. This will be the best marker of your preparedness. Your governments must invest in civil defense, increase defense budgets, and expand the armed forces ready for all scenarios, including missions in Ukraine. And this will shatter Russia"s plans. The war may not happen at all, or it may end quickly without mass casualties and destruction. Everything is in your hands.

And most importantly: remember us, remember Ukraine. We are your strongest card. Right now, we have 110 brigades. You have only 80. Yes, you may have an advantage in certain types of equipment, but we have experience and modern effective tactics. In case of an invasion, we will not abandon you. In fact, we will almost certainly launch a series of our own offensives aimed at disrupting the pace of their advance against you, no matter how difficult it may be for us.

Together, we will succeed.