One American"s assessment of Prigozhin and his Wagner rebellion

What is Wagner?

ChVK Vagner (Wagner Private Military Company) is a private but Russian state-funded paramilitary organization. Since its apparent uprising in Russia, Wagner continues to stay in the news cycle. And so does its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is said to be back in Russia after a brief sojourn to Belarus.

Wagner is named after a brutal Russian commando who, in turn, used the moniker of the German composer. It is composed of mercenaries and has been described as a de facto private army of Russian President Vladimir Putin"s most likely former close ally, (Prigozhin), a hardened Soviet era convicted criminal who became known as "Putin"s Chef", securing lucrative military contracts to supply food.

Before the war in Ukraine, Wagner was believed to have about 5.000 fighters – mostly veterans of Russia"s elite regiments and special forces. However, its numbers have since grown considerably. When announcing his "march for justice" on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he commanded 25.000 troops. Although mercenary forces are technically illegal in Russia, Wagner registered as a company in 2022, sporting bold corporate signage on its building in Saint Petersburg. The U.S. said it would designate the group a "transnational criminal organization" in January, 2023.

What happened and why?

The Russian Defense ministry stated it will claim the group"s heavy weapons and military hardware, encouraging the mercenary units to integrate into the Russian military. The move follows a rebellion by Wagner commander Prigozhin, who marched on Moscow with an estimated 5.000 fighters, but stopped 200km short of the capital. The Wagner group was first identified in 2014, when it started backing pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. It is thought to have helped Russia annex Crimea in the same year. Wagner forces have also been active in multiple regions in Africa and the Middle East.

Several versions of what happened are emerging. Political strategist Yuri Podorozhny notes that the most obvious version is that Prigozhin is the spokesman for the part of the army that is dissatisfied with Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov (who has been relieved of his duties). Accordingly, his uprising is an attempt to convey to Putin there is a disgruntled segment in the military. Based on my sources in Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, I suspect that the Wagner uprising was coordinated with Putin to assess loyalties and serve as a predicate to reshuffle or reset influence and organizational structure in the military and paramilitary/intelligence apparatus. Regardless of either scenario, Prigozhin first made videos criticizing the military leadership and the pretextual war propaganda. In an older video he admitted even contemplating a move on Moscow.

The third theory is that Prigozhin raised an uprising because Shoigu gave the order to have Prigozhin killed, and Prigozhin staged a campaign against Moscow. However, it seems peculiar that 25.000 wagnerians moved towards Moscow unhindered. Russian paramilitary seemingly disengaged at the most critical time. Only the Ministry of Defense, which lost 12 pilots, joined the confrontation, explains Podorozhny. The possible explanation, other than the incompetence and disarray of the military complex, is that various segments of Russian forces respect and are loyal to the Wagner chief. It is also peculiar that despite the media assault on Prigozhin and his exile, he seems to move around freely in Russia and Belarus.

The fourth theory is similar to the second version and assumes horrible planning on the part of the Russian military. The Kremlin needed another shake-up of Russian society in general and the army in particular. The Prigozhin riot is a way to expose those whose allegiance is compromised, which will help the Russian government install an even more repressive regime over its people. But errors in planning transformed the staged crisis into a political blunder – similar to Russia"s full-scale offensive into Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The fifth version is that Prigozhin has gone mad. After all, this war criminal is characterized by medieval brutality on the Ukrainian front and other war theatres where Wagner is hired to augment official as well as unofficial military operations.

The appearance of Belorussian dictator, Lukashenko, as the one who allegedly managed to stop this uprising only confirms its awkwardness. Because if Prigozhin really dared to threaten Putin and hypothetically could seize power, then there should be one solution to the failed coup – the elimination of Prigozhin at any cost. Putin, who did not hesitate to blow up high-rise buildings, made mass sacrifices in the hostage situation during the "Nord Ost", has now allowed Prigozhin to leave? Just go to Belarus, because that"s what the leader of the Wagnerians agreed to with the old guard Soviet-carryover, Lukashenko?

And now Prigozhin will build a military base in Belarus? I think there is neither Prigozhin"s madness nor Lukashenko"s "peacemaker" skills that are at stake. Rather, Wagner will continue to be financed from the Russian budget. Prigozhin will face the task of preparing the Belarusian Front. Lukashenko, who resisted the involvement of the Belarusian army in hostilities and even more so the opening of the front from the north of Ukraine, has now received both nuclear weapons and military power with sufficient combat experience. However, this option (if it is really conceived by the Kremlin) is as flawed as the so called "special military operation" into Ukraine.

What"s next for Prigozhin, Wagner, Putin?

Representatives of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Wagner rebellion involving Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin is not over and will have both short-term and long-term consequences that could benefit Ukraine. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexey Danilov predicts future riots in Russia, and Russian war criminal, blogger, head of the "Club of Angry Patriots" Igor Girkin-Strelkov worries that the Belarusian base of the wagnerians is now closer to Moscow than their former field camps were.

There will be an attempt to either eliminate Putin or speed up the transition of power, Director of the Center for Research on Civil Society Problems Vitaly Kulik explains. This is not a resolved conflict, but a deferred one. Prigozhin himself will not necessarily take part in it. A repeat attempt to redistribute power, seize it or speed up transit cannot be avoided, argues Kulik. According to the expert, there was a momentary mobilization of elites, ruling groups around Putin. Because it was profitable and seemed safe. This, Kulik emphasizes, is not about Putin"s ability to continue to lead. He is temporary temporarily, at this stage. "Since he showed weakness, after a certain period of shock, there will be a rethinking. And there will be attempt number two, three...", the expert predicts. Unresolved conflict with wagnerians will only accelerate the erosion of the system, points out Kulik. In some Russian cities, posters about Wagner recruitment are starting to be hung up again.

The system, having shown its inability to counteract, Putin, who did not come up with true countermeasures, did not dare to immediately destroy Prigozhin, and entered into negotiations with him through the mediation of a subservient Belarus is a clear manifestation of weakness.

Thus far, it seems that Prigozhin tried in every possible way to reach Putin. He recorded videos denouncing the Ministry of Defense, showed all sorts of maps. And then it was necessary to "reach out" with the help of this coup, the capture of Rostov and Voronezh. The Russian authorities were not prepared. When such paramilitary or military structures as Wagner become very strong, they begin to worry the authorities, because they pose a real threat to the establishment. American private military company Academi, better known by its old name Blackwater is an example of this phenomenon.

Blackwater was founded by a former US Navy Seal, Erik Prince. My path had crossed with Mr. Prince more than once, and although he is entirely different from Mr. Prigozhin, U.S. politicians moved to marginalize his organization and him, once Blackwater"s influence became truly formidable. This is a lesson for Mr. Prigozhin and his progeny.

YURI VANETIK is an American attorney of Ukrainian descent. He is also a political strategist, Lincoln Fellow at the Claremont Institute and Director at West Support