Today"s exit polls of Ukraine"s first round of Presidential elections show: Ukrainian people have got Ukraine fatigue.
Print Screen Mr. Zelenskiy & his wife take questions from reporters on the 31st March 2019
The condition was first ascribed to delegates of European institutions, who have been tired of Ukraine"s ongoing conflict with Russia and the fact, that Ukraine kept reminding why it got into this conflict in the first place: Budapest Memorandum.
European institutions have had Ukraine fatigue for quite a bit. They kinda knew Ukraine is the last stronghold and piece of the puzzle for Russia to go back to the USSR. Not loving the idea of USSR being back, European institutions kept helping Ukraine, but not too willingly. They have had Ukraine fatigue for a while. Of course, Ukraine"s strongest supporters Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk have been pulling their weight all the way relentlessly – but Europe overall has been diagnosed with Ukraine fatigue for years.
Today"s exit polls of Ukraine"s first round of Presidential elections show: Ukrainian people have got Ukraine fatigue. Too.
It also shows, that Ukrainian people watch a lot of TV.
Mr. Zelenskiy, a comic playing a teacher-turned-President in a popular TV series "Servant of the people" is leading the exit polls with 30.4% with the incumbent President of Ukraine Mr. Poroshenko following with quite a substantial gap at 17.8%.
Mr. Zelenskiy hardly had any public TV appearances, live shows or debates during the election campaign – only agreeing to chamber intimate one-to-one formats of short interviews, heavily redacted and well-prepped. Moreover, Mr. Zelenskiy has been touring the country with his comic show up until the last week inclusively. He also has a show scheduled tomorrow, on the 1stof April.
Print screen: announcement of a show featuring Mr. Zelenskiy for 5 & 7 April 2019
The TV-shyness of Mr. Zelenskiy is nothing pertinent to his personality – he has been basking in the limelight for decades, personally playing many parts in his shows on top of being the producer of Kvartal 95 production.
The TV-shyness of Mr, Zlenskiy is ascribed by many political experts as a well-calculated step: his team of advisors does not want to blur the line between the fiction and reality.
They want the people to remain enchanted by Holoborod"ko. Holoborod"ko, who drives a bicycle, is anti-oligarch and stands up to IMF.
They don"t want the people to become familiar and thusly disappointed with Mr. Zelenskiy. Mr. Zelenskiy, who drives a Range Rover, is a great friend with many oligarchs, some more than others, and seems to hardly be able to speak coherently on political subjects beyond script.
The last episodes of the Servant of the People have just aired and people have had the chance to watch a triumph of the next-door-guy type teacher-turned-President winning over corruption and making Ukraine a much better place to live in.
People watch a lot of TV. People also want to live like TV guys do.
People have voted for Holoborod"ko this time.
People don"t know Zelenskiy. But Holoborod"ko is a real cool fella. Pretty bad ass. On screen that is.
Many believe, that this outcome is final and second round will not change much. Vitaliy Sych, one of Ukraine"s top journalist, Editor-in-Chief of Novoe Vremia comments in his Facebook feed:
"During 3 weeks [till next round] it is next to impossible to narrow that big a gap by making people like Poroshenko more – what is possible if to make people dislike Zelenskiy more – but that requires a huge scandal.
In other words, it is tough to conceive what could possibly help Poroshenko to bridge that big a gap with Zelenskiy in the second round.
I personally see this as an essentially final outcome of the Presidential elections".
Print Screen: Facebook feed of Vitalii Sych
What could possibly await Ukraine in case Holoborod"ko Zelenskiy wins?
Quite likely he will try to reach agreement with Russia re:
- ceasefire in Donbass & Luhansk
- reversion of any attempts to get Crimea back
- put stop on any legal claims and damages from Ukraine to Russia across all spheres of interest
- put stop to sanctions or decrease pressure re: sanctions
- reversion of Ukrainian language promotion and vice versa strengthening of the Russian language standing /TV & radio quotes etc/
To put it simply, Zelenskiy may trade peace for full and complete stop of any pro-European actions /advancement towards EU status, joining NATO/ — but rather to gradually shift back towards Russia. In all probability it will be a "tender russification", whereby Zelenskiy will be given a lot of freedom to dispose of the situation within the country, but will have his hands tied in terms of Geo-politics – having to check his compass with Kremlin all the time.
In terms of economics, Zelenskiy is highly likely to take guidance from his alleged grey cardinal and sponsor – Mr. Kolomoyskiy – one of Ukraine"s notorious oligarchs, who is known to be pro-default. Mr. Kolomoyskiy mentioned in his interview with Koshkina, that he sees no problem in Ukraine going bankrupt – "just like Greece did". He also wants his Privat bank back.
Print screen: interview with Mr. Kolomoyskiy by Ms. Kishkina
Indeed, Ukraine is just a small country with exhausted economy, corrupt systems and people who are tired of mourning their best sons. But Ukraine has made tons of progress in the recent years. Most importantly — all of the progress was done towards the European vector away from Russia.
Ukraine has the most powerful villain of today"s world as their main opponent. This is a David and Goliath battle of the 21stcentury.
But if we take into account the context, this small David has been holding damn well so far. Context being the Presidential election in USA, Brexit, Yellow Vests.
Ukraine needs help more than ever before. Ukraine is the last piece of the puzzle after all. If Ukraine goes back under Russian influence once again – the world should be ready to welcome back USSR.
