Last month, Russia suspended gas transit to Hungary via Ukraine, in line with the new contract inked with Budapest. The parties agreed that 4 billion cubic meters of gas will be supplied bypassing Ukraine.

 

When the news broke of the concluded contract, both the Russian and Hungarian sides said it was sealed due to security considerations. They claimed Ukraine"s gas transmission system is so unreliable that Hungary cannot risk its energy security. And, naturally enough, such an argument turned out to be completely false, which was confirmed by time. So let"s dwell on this.

After Russian and Hungarian top officials announced their decision to switch the transit route, I noted in one of my posts that Budapset had concluded the contract solely to please Moscow"s energy revanchist ambitions, as well as that all the arguments in favor of such a move are far-fetched and ultimately false.

 

For example, the Ukrainian GTS is much safer than the Russian one. After all, while not a single major accident occurred at the Ukrainian GTS in 2021 (the one that entails the cessation of gas supplies for a period of more than 24 hours), the Russian GTS saw seven such accidents in less than a year!

 

In addition, I described in detail that for Russia, the new route will cost a pretty penny given how economically unfeasible it is. But in no case is Gazprom that will cover financial losses from the new route… It"ll be the Russian taxpayers, of course.

 

And now, less than a month after the Russian gas transit to Hungary was redirected from the Ukrainian pipe to the Turkish one and further through the Balkans, a major emergency struck this "safer" route.

 

Today, November 1, at 3:00 AM, an accident occurred at the Bulgartransgaz pipeline near the village of Vetrino due to a pipe rupture. From 3:15 AM, gas shipments to Romania were suspended, and from 7:00 AM, supply to Serbia and Hungary also stopped. Only after 8:00 were supplies to Romania partially restored.

So what was it about anyway?

 

Here"s what happened. Russia has redirected gas supplies along a new route. Consequently, the load, pressure, and other parameters have increased on the new route as well. A mere 4 billion cubic meters annually, and so much for the "reliable" pipes along the new "safer" route, less than a month after the additional volumes were redirected!

I think the Hungarian government should be happy about such a result. After all, they snubbed the Ukrainian "unreliable" GTS, which was okay with ensuring annual shipments of up to 100 bcm and more, remaining stable even amid certain minor, non-critical accidents that might take place, and never breaking at the seams.  So now they have the new, "reliable" route, which for some reason succumbs to a much smaller pressure change.

But this is already Budapest"s headache. If you want to please Moscow, that"s what you get. You"ll be facing this loose cannon until your "deal of the century" expires. Meanwhile, Russia doesn"t seem to care too much. After all, they might lose some money, while Hungary might actually "freeze their ears off" this winter.